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Sonny Aragba-Akpore
Sonny Aragba-Akpore

With 173.5 million active mobile lines in a country of roughly 220 million people and a tele-density of 80 per cent, Nigeria’s digital economy is being propelled by a wave of mobile connectivity unlike anything the nation has seen before.

What once appeared a slow and uncertain transition into a digital marketplace has, in recent years, gathered remarkable speed as infrastructure, policy, skill development and private-sector innovation converge to create new economic possibilities.

The Federal Government has attempted to steer this momentum with the National Digital Economy Policy and Strategy 2020–2030, a roadmap designed to reposition the Nigerian economy by leveraging digital technologies as engines of inclusive growth.

The strategy rests on eight pillars, ranging from digital literacy and regulatory frameworks to emerging technologies and indigenous content development. Although often discussed in broad policy language, the strategy’s essence is simple: to prepare Nigerians for a world where economic participation will increasingly depend on digital capability.

A working paper on the subject captures the urgency: “Digital upskilling of local Nigerian talent is a priority for the Nigerian government in collaboration with the private sector.” That collaboration has become more visible as global technology firms expand their footprint in Nigeria not only through business operations but through skill-building initiatives. The result is an ecosystem gradually learning to stand on digital foundations.

In 2021, Microsoft entered a national partnership with the Federal Government with the ambitious target of training five million Nigerian youth in technical skills.

Google has implemented multiple programmes, including the Google Africa Developer Scholarship which focuses on mobile and web development. Its Digital Skills for Africa platform continue to offer training in internet marketing, data analytics and web design, equipping young Nigerians with competencies essential for survival in a tech-driven economy.

Cisco has also played a significant role. In May 2023, it signed an agreement with the National Information Technology Development Agency to help bridge Nigeria’s digital divide and launched a new EDGE Centre in Lagos to support SMEs through incubation and capacity building. The Cisco Networking Academy, available in more than 200 tertiary institutions across the country, has trained over 200,000 people, providing a steady supply of talent for an expanding digital workforce. Meta has complemented these efforts with programmes on digital marketing, online safety and content development, targeting young people and aspiring creators who see opportunity in the digital economy.

These interventions are taking place within an economic landscape where telecommunications remains one of the most influential sectors. Statistics from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) show that in the second quarter of 2024, telecoms ranked as the third-largest contributor to real GDP after agriculture and trade, underscoring the sector’s role in national productivity.

Dominated by mobile network operators such as MTN, Globacom, Airtel and 9mobile, alongside a growing number of Internet Service Providers, the industry continues to be a crucial driver of activity in diverse sectors.

Nigeria’s GSM market is shaped by four major operators. MTN leads with a market share of 37.35 per cent, followed by Airtel with 28.93 per cent, Globacom with 28.40 per cent and 9mobile with 5.32 per cent. The sheer size of Nigeria’s population has amplified mobile growth and positioned telecoms as a vital engine for diversification in an economy still heavily dependent on oil.

Telecommunications now contribute about 9.2 per cent to GDP, and broadband penetration stands at 49.3 per cent, slightly below the 70 per cent target set for December 2025. Even so, the trajectory is promising. The rise of fintech is a major part of this digital evolution, transforming the delivery of financial services and widening access for millions of unbanked and underbanked Nigerians.

From digital payments and lending platforms to POS networks and wealth-management tools, fintech innovations have democratised financial access and stimulated entrepreneurship. For many Nigerians in rural communities, fintech represents their first encounter with formal financial services.

Other aspects of the digital economy are taking shape at pace. Smart-city concepts driven by the Internet of Things are beginning to attract investment and experimentation. Cybersecurity has become a critical area of focus due to the spread of mobile banking, ecommerce and online transactions. The Central Bank’s decision to issue mobile banking licences to major telecom operators deepened the payment ecosystem and enabled mobile money to reach millions of small and medium-sized enterprises which rely heavily on customer-to-business digital payments. As a result, fintech adoption has accelerated and mobile payments have increasingly become part of daily life.

The country’s digital infrastructure continues to expand. The Nigerian Communications Commission has awarded 5G licences to MTN, Airtel and Mafab Communications.

Early rollouts have begun in selected locations, although nationwide deployment will require extensive investment in small cell sites, fibre optics and base stations.

Nigeria is also connected to several major undersea cables linking it to Europe, the Americas and other parts of Africa, including SAT-3, WACS, MainOne, Glo1, ACE and Google’s Equiano cable. These connections are increasing bandwidth capacity and improving internet speed across the country.

In August 2024, the Minister of Communications, Innovation and Digital Economy, Bosun Tijani released the draft National Artificial Intelligence Strategy, an ambitious document that outlines pathways for ethical and practical AI deployment in Nigeria.

The strategy recognises the country’s unique challenges and opportunities, from climate-sensitive agriculture to healthcare delivery and suggests that a well-implemented AI framework could accelerate national development while balancing global influences.

Yet even with these advancements, concerns persist about the strength and clarity of digital regulation. Experts warn that the institutions responsible for guiding Nigeria’s digital transition appear to be losing grip at a critical moment.

One analyst argues that “rather than acting as referees, Nigeria’s digital regulators have become cheerleaders, celebrating every new partnership with a global brand as a sign of progress.”

He adds that these partnerships, often framed as steps toward innovation, sometimes lead to the displacement of Nigerian companies, the offshoring of local data and the erosion of indigenous capacity.

The consequences, he says, are becoming harder to ignore. Nigerian startups are either scaling down or relocating abroad due to dwindling investment confidence.

International and domestic investors are becoming more cautious. Government agencies increasingly procure foreign software and cloud solutions, sidelining local firms that once supplied these services.

Meanwhile, the dominance of telecom operators is growing across payments, identity management and data operations, areas previously driven by innovative local startups.

Another expert argues that the silence from regulatory bodies like the NCC and NITDA represents not neutrality but neglect. He points to Ghana as a cautionary example, where the dominance of MTN Mobile Money gradually stifled the fintech ecosystem. Innovation slowed, startups shut down and competition became symbolic rather than real.

Nigeria appears to be moving down a similar path, though the sheer size of its market and its more complex digital ecosystem may prevent the decline from becoming as steep as Ghana’s. Still, the warning is clear. Without firmer regulation, stronger support for indigenous companies and a more deliberate approach to digital sovereignty, the gains of the past decade could be undermined.

Nigeria’s digital economy stands at a crossroads. Connectivity is strong, innovation is vibrant and global interest remains high. Yet the foundations that underpin long-term growth require more than enthusiasm. They require regulation that is firm but fair, investment that favours local capacity and policies that protect the ecosystem from imbalances that suffocate competition.

For now, the mobile connectivity boom continues to propel the economy forward. The challenge is ensuring that the boom becomes a sustainable force, not a fleeting moment in Nigeria’s digital evolution.


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